Rewind 2022: Lessons that stock market investors learnt

[ad_1]

The year 2022 turned out to be a difficult one with unprecedented inflation and economic turbulence. As the pandemic receded, the economy was expected to bloom. However, the road to recovery did not go as expected given the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine which brought along with it high inflation.

Yet on the brighter side, Indian markets have shown resilience leaving a lasting impression by outperforming other global indices.

As we come close to the year-end, let’s rewind and review the lessons this year has taught us:

The war taught the importance of self-reliance. India launched “Made in India” in 2014 with the aim to reduce our import dependence. Even when localisation overtakes globalisation as the next crucial factor, the financial markets are still interconnected and will continue to have an impact on one another. We should focus on the sectors which will be directly and closely linked to the growth of Atmanirbhar Bharat.

Inflation is a part and parcel of life pinching us every few years. 2022 proved that classic inflation hedges don’t always work. Despite high inflation, we witnessed flat prices in gold. Our portfolio needs to be well-diversified across asset classes with well-balanced investing among sectors.

Our risk appetite and ability to invest will be influenced by factors beyond our control such as rising inflation and central banks’ steps taken to curb the same. One cannot fight the central banks’ ability to control the money supply.

Catastrophes come and go making markets unstable but eventually, they recover. Global indices plunged when the pandemic hit the world. The same rebounded higher after the pandemic fear settled. This calendar year, indices have slumped due to uncertainty. However, as the macroeconomic situation has started to improve, indices are ready to pick up.
Volatility cannot be escaped and an investor needs to remain invested with patience in quality names for a long tenure, the market does reward long-term investors.

Money can be made by entering at the right time. This time is when the stock is trading far below its intrinsic value. The key is to identify the right themes which are likely to play out and maintain composure during the short-term hiccups. The cyclicality in the markets is a feature ensuring that everything works sometimes but nothing works all the time.

Technical Outlook

After three weeks of negative closing, a strong tall green candle is formed on the weekly chart of the benchmark index which indicates a probable pause of a short-term correction in the index.

Technically index has taken support at a 21-day exponential moving average which is placed at 17,825 levels. Moreover, in terms of the candle stick, the index has also formed a bullish harami pattern near its 21 EMA which indicates strong support at 17,800 levels.

The weekly strength indicator RSI (14) and momentum oscillator Stochastic have both readings in positive terrain and are above their respective reference lines indicating positive bias in the short to medium term.

The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 18,300 levels it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 18,450 levels. However, if the index breaks below the 17,800 level it would witness selling which would take the index toward the 17,500 levels.

jm

Expectations for the Week

The upcoming week will release some crucial data. The US will report its November 2022 export and import statistics along with its balance of trade results. When the FOMC minutes are made public later this week, Indian markets could react in sync with the rest of the global peers as market participants try to decipher the Fed’s action plan. Domestically, the New Year is scheduled to start with the monthly sales numbers of automobile companies. Along with the growth rates across segments, the demand in rural areas will be monitored. In times of volatility, investors should structure their portfolios appropriately and concentrate on the long-term picture rather than the short-term challenges. Nifty50 closed the week at 18,105.30, up by 1.68%.

[ad_2]

Source link

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

12 − one =

×