Markets at new highs, investors turn focus on Q2 earnings

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Indian markets kick-started the week on a strong note as benchmark indices hit another fresh record high on Monday. Investor sentiment around Indian equities remained high even as world’s second largest economy reported below anticipated gross domestic product (GDP) for September quarter while elevated oil prices still stoke inflation fears.

The BSE Sensex was up 459.64 points or 0.75% at 61,765.59, while the Nifty gained 138.50 points or 0.76% at 18,477.05.

 Stocks in other Asia-Pacific region were mostly lower as the Shanghai Composite in  China  slipped 0.12% while the Nikkei 225 in Japan shed 0.15%.

Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Financial Services said, “The domestic market traded at record highs withstanding the weak trends in the global market due to disappointing Chinese GDP numbers and global inflationary pressure as a result of energy shortage. Chinese GDP grew by just 4.9% during the July-September quarter owing to lower than expected growth in industrial activity.  However, the trend in the Indian market was bullish as PSU Banks, Metals, IT and Energy stocks took charge of the rally.”

 However, India volatility index or India VIX surged 8.99% on Monday to end at 17.19 suggesting rise of anxiety and nervousness. Analysts believe that the markets will turn focus on corporate earnings now

According to Ajit Mishra, analyst, Religare Broking Ltd markets participants will be closely eyeing the management commentaries for the future growth outlook. “Apart from this, global cues would also be on investors’ radar. We reiterate our bullish view on the market and suggest using intermediate dips to add quality stocks,” he said.

Given the sharp increase in global commodity prices, particularly oil, concerns about India’s current account deficit (CAD) and its serviceability have resurfaced. While potential taper by the US Federal Reserve has only added to these jitters.

Analysts at BofA Securities believe that while foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows are expected to moderate given already rich equity market valuations and expectation of policy normalization by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), FDI inflows are expected to stay robust. Non-investment foreign flows – namely banking capital, loans and other capital – are expected to improve, it said.

 “We think the impact of Fed taper is likely to be more muted for India this time, unlike the 2013 episode when current account deficit was running at a high 4.8% of GDP, and import cover was a low seven months with forex reserves of $300 billion,” BofA Securities said.

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